High Stakes, High Rewards: Why StubHub's IPO Could Be the Market Gamble of the Year

If you have any questions or are interested in learning more about going public and our investor relations service in the IPO space, please reach out to felicia.oyebode@iecapitalusa.com. 

The NFL is back, and with that, the fantasy lineups, the Sunday rituals, and the mad scramble for tickets to see your team make their playoff push. But another thing is adding to the frenzy: StubHub going public.

After three years of false starts and market delays, the world's largest ticket resale marketplace is finally making its move, with massive implications. We're talking about a company that essentially invented the way we buy and sell tickets online, survived being bought and sold by eBay, and somehow emerged more dominant than ever.

Now, with a potential $9 billion valuation on the table, investors are asking the same question fans ask when eyeing those expensive playoff seats: Is it worth the risk?

What and Who Is StubHub?

Most people know StubHub as that site where you frantically refresh for concert tickets or pay triple face value for playoff seats. But behind those last-minute purchases sits a $1.77 billion revenue machine that started as a Stanford business school project and somehow became the undisputed king of ticket resales.

The Origin Story That Keeps Paying Off

Eric Baker and Jeff Fluhr launched StubHub in 2000 with a simple idea: create a marketplace where fans could safely buy and sell tickets online. What started as a class project turned into the company that invented the entire secondary ticketing industry. Baker sold it, watched it change hands, then bought it back in 2020 for $4.05 billion through his company Viagogo. 

The numbers tell the comeback story. StubHub posted $1.77 billion in revenue for 2024 with 29% year-over-year growth, while gross merchandise sales hit $8.7 billion. They process over 40 million ticket transactions annually for 30+ million active buyers who spend an average of $250 per order. That 20.4% take rate means StubHub pockets roughly $1 out of every $5 that flows through their platform.

The Money-Making Machine

StubHub runs a simple but lucrative model: they charge both sides of every transaction. Buyers pay 10-15% in fees, sellers pay 5-10%, and StubHub walks away with that combined 20.4% take rate on every deal. They handle everything from ticket discovery and fraud protection to delivery and customer support through their FanProtect Guarantee.

The company employs between 1,000 and 5,000 people globally from its Los Angeles headquarters, with additional offices in New York and internationally. They're also expanding beyond pure resale into primary ticketing, which generated over $100 million in gross merchandise sales in 2024 despite accounting for just 1% of total volume.

Global Ticket Domination

StubHub operates in over 200 countries and territories, supports 33 languages, and accepts 48 different currencies. Ticket buyers from 77+ countries purchase seats for major sports leagues through their platform. They've structured operations to comply with various regulations: StubHub Holdings runs North America, while StubHub International handles the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and other markets.

The company commands an estimated 30-40% market share in secondary ticketing, making it the clear industry leader. That represents a massive recovery from their 10-15% pandemic low, with most gains coming directly from competitors like Ticketmaster, SeatGeek, and Vivid Seats. 

Eric Baker still controls 90.4% of voting power despite owning just 5.2% of shares, while institutional investors like Madrone Capital Partners (27.1%), WestCap (11%), and Bessemer Venture Partners (9.6%) hold the major stakes.

The IPO Details: Rolling the Dice on Wall Street

StubHub's impressive numbers are one thing, but putting a price tag on the whole operation is where things get interesting. After years of "will they or won't they" speculation, the company finally filed its paperwork and set its terms for an IPO that could make StubHub one of 2025's most significant market debuts.

The Price Is Right (Maybe)

StubHub plans to list shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol STUB and sell more than 34 million shares priced between $22 and $25 each. The company expects net proceeds of about $735.5 million at the $23.50 midpoint, or roughly $849.2 million if underwriters exercise their option to buy an additional 5.11 million shares.

The math gets big fast. StubHub will have more than 372.9 million shares outstanding after the IPO, assuming full exercise of that overallotment option. Price the shares at the $25 high end, and you're looking at an initial market capitalization of around $9.32 billion. 

For context, that's roughly double what Eric Baker paid to repurchase his company just five years ago.

Wall Street's heaviest hitters are also handling the offering. J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs serve as lead joint book-running managers, while BofA Securities, Evercore ISI, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho, TD Cowen, Truist Securities, and Wolfe | Nomura Alliance rounds out the joint book-running team. Citizens Capital Markets, Oppenheimer & Co., Wedbush Securities, and PNC Capital Markets handle co-manager duties.

Third Time's the Charm

StubHub's path to public markets reads like a comedy of errors and bad timing. 

The company had been planning to go public for three years, but kept hitting roadblocks. They put their roadshow on ice in early April amid stock market turmoil triggered by tariffs and a shaky global economy. And before that, they postponed their summer 2024 IPO when the new-listings market turned ice cold.

That said, all’s well that ends well, and the delays might have worked in their favor. The current market environment looks friendlier to consumer-focused tech companies, and StubHub's strong 2024 performance gives them better numbers to showcase than they would have had during their earlier attempts.

Power Stays Put

Don't expect Eric Baker to lose control anytime soon. The CEO and co-founder will hold roughly 88% of the company's voting power after the IPO, thanks to a dual-class share structure that keeps decision-making firmly in the founders' hands. Smart, given his track record of building, selling, and successfully buying back the same company.

The Bottom Line: Big Bet or Big Mistake?

StubHub's IPO boils down to a simple question: Does a ticket resale business deserve a $9 billion valuation? The company has the numbers to back up its asking price. They dominate their market, generate solid cash flows, and just posted 29% revenue growth while competitors struggled.

But here's the catch. You're buying a company that lives and dies by people's willingness to overpay for concert tickets and playoff seats. When the economy gets rocky, those $250 average orders could disappear fast. Plus, Ticketmaster isn't sitting around letting StubHub eat their lunch forever.

Eric Baker clearly believes his company is worth every penny of that $25 share price. He bought it back for $4 billion, grew it into a $9+ billion business, and he's keeping 88% of voting control even after going public. That's either supreme confidence or supreme stubbornness.

At the end of the day, StubHub is a pure play on live entertainment and people's willingness to pay premium prices for experiences. If you think concert tickets and sports games are recession-proof, this could be your ticket to profits. If you believe a ticket go-between isn't worth more than most Fortune 500 companies, consider sitting this one out.

The market will decide soon enough whether StubHub is worth the hype or is another overhyped IPO.

If you have any questions or are interested in learning more about going public and our investor relations service in the IPO space, please reach out to felicia.oyebode@iecapitalusa.com. 

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